This is the third part in this series. Read part 2 here.
Last time, we looked at the specific crime information by not only weapon but by time. This time, we’re going to explore the crime data a little closer. A lot of people are pushing gun control as a matter of public safety, saying that fewer guns will equal less crime and fewer deaths. As we saw before, the crime part isn’t really right. As you’ll see, the part about fewer deaths isn’t really right either.
The problem with saying that it’s a matter of public safety is that there are a great number of things that pose a greater relative risk to public safety. According to the CDC, there were an average of 3,880 drownings per year between 2005 and 2009. They also report that there are a far greater number of automobile-related deaths than firearms deaths. The CDC does not provide tables in the same format as the UCR, it’s much more piecemeal so requires more gathering. Here is the full data from 2010.
While it’s true that it isn’t possible to adequately compare drowning or car crashes to gun deaths, it also shouldn’t be immediately dismissed. It’s necessary to assess risk. To borrow from Sam Harris:
“…anyone who lies awake at night worrying about the prospects of another mass shooting, but reads email on his smartphone while driving his kids to school, has something to learn about relative risk. And anyone who wants to put a swimming pool in his backyard should consider the safety implications—which are analogous to those of owning a gun.”
Homicide rates are higher among young black and Hispanic males by a huge margin. The CDC data from 1999-2007 shows that, during 2007, black males aged 15-34 were the most common demographic group suffering death by homicide. Why is this?
The Bureau of Justice Statistics has a full homicide breakdown that illustrates homicides by demographic from 1980-2008. Page 29 has the breakdown by city type. Large cities are, unsurprisingly, the locations with the highest number of homicides. Though there isn’t any convenient table from the UCR to show them all in one spot, it’s possible to find the rates and volume of murders by City and by State.
Census data shows us that black youth live in metropolitan areas in greater concentrations than anywhere else, which also happen to be the areas of the greatest concentration of poverty and, as mentioned above, the areas of the highest incidence of violent crime.
What we end up with is that the number one predictor of violent crime and gun homicide is poverty in densely populated areas; the inner cities. These also happen to be the areas of greatest gang activity and illicit drug use.
This idea was first investigated deeply by John Lott in his book “More Guns, Less Crime”. Mr. Lott is an economist who studies of gun violence as it pertains to economics and crime rates. He has since become an advocate for gun rights based on his work.
This is where things get very tricky, since it raises several very difficult questions that aren’t easily addressed. They certainly can’t be effectively addressed via legislation. The larger conversation that needs to happen (I believe, at least) is that we, as a nation, need to have some motivation to succeed and a viable path on which to achieve that. There seems to be a collective hopelessness among many Americans, not only within the cities but everywhere. We accept what we’re given because we’ve been conditioned to believe that’s all we can get.
Just as we can’t legislate morality, legislating meaningful social changes isn’t practical or even possible. Violent crime is a social issue first and foremost. Addressing causes instead of symptoms is the only way we’ll ever get things under control. It’s time to start having a more productive conversation even if it’s a more difficult one that makes us look harder at ourselves as a collective and see some things we don’t really want to see.
